Production of intermediate resolution (25-50 km grid spacing) meteorological fields for 30-year time slices of the 21st century necessary to conduct very fine scale regional climate simulations planned in WP2 over targeted areas of central and eastern Europe. Collection and assessment of medium to coarse scale (25-150 km) climate change information for the central and eastern European region available from previous projects and numerical simulations (PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, IPCC);

Provision of targeted information collected and assessed from previous available projects (see above) to impact modelers involved in the other WPs for first-stream impact analysis studies.

Two simulations for the 21st century will be completed. The first (CNRM) will use the global variable resolution model ARPEGE at 50 km grid spacing over Europe and will extend until 2100 the run presently planned for ENSEMBLES (which goes to 2050 under forcing from the A1B IPCC emission scenario) (D1.1). The second (ICTP) will use the regional climate model RegCM3 (grid spacing of 25 km) and will extend until 2100 the run presently planned for ENSEMBLES (which goes until 2050). This will be driven by ECHAM5 boundary conditions with forcing from the A1B IPCC emission scenario. (D1.2) Meteorological fields from these simulations will be provided fro use in WP2. (D1.1 and D1.2)

A number of projects have produced multi-model and multi-scale datasets of climate change over Europe. For the project PRUDENCE (just completed), different GCMs and RCMS (run mostly at 50 km grid spacing) time slice simulations were completed for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios. Similar but centennial scale (1950-2050 or 1950-2100) and higher resolution (25 km) simulations are planned for the ENSEMBLES project. In addition, as part of the IPCC process about 20 GCMs worldwide have been used to produce an unprecedented multi-model and multi-scenario dataset for the 20th and 21st century. The DMI has also completed a multi-decadal time slice simulation over the European region at 12 km grid spacing. All this information will be assessed (ICTP.CNRM,DMI,CUNI,ETH) to provide an evaluation of uncertainties in climate change simulations over the central-eastern European region (D1.3). ETH will focus on the assessment of terrestrial water storage.

The assessment carried out in the previous task will allow WP1 to evaluate what is the most reliable information that can be used for a first-stream application to process analysis and impact work planned for the other WPs. This targeted information will be provided to the other WPs (ICTP,DMI,CUNI).(D1.4)

M1.1 Month 12: Provision of data from available climate change simulations for first-stream impact work.
M1.2 Month 18: Provision of driving fields from intermediate scale experiments for very fine scale targeted simulations