WP6: Climate change impacts on
agriculture and forestry sectors
| WP leader: | dr. Jozef Mindas (Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Slovakia) |
Objectives
This workpackage will analyze the impacts on agriculture and forestry sectors. Climate change is one
of the driven forces that can significantly influence both sectors due to direct effects of climate change
on the crop yield, tree growth, water balance, weather extremes, drought occurrence, land use change,
pests and diseases (IPCC 2001). The workpackage will study the regional climate change impacts with
the main focus on:
- Assessment of the change in crop yield and its quality under the different climate scenarios for the selected regions under current production and land-use systems.
- Assessment of the change in forest tree growth under the different climate scenarios for the selected regions under current management systems. Assessment of climate change effects on soil water balance: the water use and loss in agricultural crop production and drought impacts on growth and development of the agricultural crops.
- Sensitivity analysis of the selected agriculture crops and the most vulnerable forest stands to climate change impacts Expected changes of occurrence and activity of pests and diseases on selected crops and forest ecosystems
- Integrated assessment of climate change and air pollution impacts on forest ecosystems in selected region
- Impacts of climate change on C-cycle in agriculture and forest ecosystems
- Adaptation analyses, recommendations and development of management options for improved land use systems in agricultural crop production and forest management under the regional climate change scenarios.
Description of work
The outputs from WP1-4 and WP7 will be applied as input parameters (climate variables, air pollution
levels/loads) for the analyses and modelling calculations in this part of the impact study.
There will be selected 3 representative regions with different climate conditions and land-use systems:
1. Semi-arid agricultural region with similar crop production systems in lowlands (NW part of Austria, SE part of the Czech republic, SW part of Slovakia and NW part of Hungary)
Appropriate simulation tools for calculating crop yield and water balance, water demand (e.g. for irrigation) will be selected, calibrated and validated (models such as CERES, STICS, SWAP, CROSWAP, BIOME-BGC etc.). The simulation tools may include drought indices for detection of drought damage potential under various climate scenarios as well as water balance models and crop yield models for detailed analysis of crop water availability and management options under the various conditions and scenarios. Judgement of changes of agroclimatic characteristics, especially temperature sums, the onset time of significant phenological characteristics of agricultural plants, pests and diseaeses. GIS will be used to visualisize regional effects on water balance and drought damage potential under climate change scenarios. We assume that activities will be focused on main crops (winter wheat, spring barley, maize) and grasslands. Also the spatial analyses will be applied for the evaluation of climate change impacts on some important pests and diseases (weather depending). Special case study related to C-cycle change will be carried out using the BIOME-BGC model for agroecosystems.
2. Arid (semi-arid) agricultural region with similar crop production systems in SE part of Europe(Romania-Bulgaria)
Appropriate simulation tools for calculating crop yield and water balance, water demand for wheat and maize crops, will be selected and calibrated (models such as CERES, HYDRUS1D, WOFOST etc.). The simulation tools may include drought indices for detection of drought damage potential and soil water availability under various climate scenarios. The simulations will be run for pilot stations, and then for additional agrometeorological stations for regional characterization of crop water use.
3. Mountain regions with dominant forest stands (S part of Poland, Central part of Slovakia, N part of Hungary)
The appropriate models (e.g.SYBILA, SILVA) will be used for the assessment of climate change impacts on tree growth (main tree species - Norway spruce, European beech and Oak sp.) under the different climate scenarios for the selected regions under current management systems. Also the spatial analyses will be applied for the evaluation of climate change impacts on some important pests and diseases (weather depending). Estimation of the critical thresholds (air pollution) (e.g. VSD, PROFILE models) as well as selected bioclimatological indices for main tree species will be used for the integrated assessment of climate change and air pollution sensitivity analysis of the most vulnerable forest stands. GIS will be used to visualisize regional effects on CC impacts on forests (vulnerability) under climate scenarios and management options. Special case study related to C-cycle change will be carried out using the BIOME-BGC model for forest ecosystems.
Based on the results from the modelling simulations some conclusions for land management (agriculture and forestry) will be defined as potential adaptation options according to IPCC recommendations
1. Semi-arid agricultural region with similar crop production systems in lowlands (NW part of Austria, SE part of the Czech republic, SW part of Slovakia and NW part of Hungary)
Appropriate simulation tools for calculating crop yield and water balance, water demand (e.g. for irrigation) will be selected, calibrated and validated (models such as CERES, STICS, SWAP, CROSWAP, BIOME-BGC etc.). The simulation tools may include drought indices for detection of drought damage potential under various climate scenarios as well as water balance models and crop yield models for detailed analysis of crop water availability and management options under the various conditions and scenarios. Judgement of changes of agroclimatic characteristics, especially temperature sums, the onset time of significant phenological characteristics of agricultural plants, pests and diseaeses. GIS will be used to visualisize regional effects on water balance and drought damage potential under climate change scenarios. We assume that activities will be focused on main crops (winter wheat, spring barley, maize) and grasslands. Also the spatial analyses will be applied for the evaluation of climate change impacts on some important pests and diseases (weather depending). Special case study related to C-cycle change will be carried out using the BIOME-BGC model for agroecosystems.
2. Arid (semi-arid) agricultural region with similar crop production systems in SE part of Europe(Romania-Bulgaria)
Appropriate simulation tools for calculating crop yield and water balance, water demand for wheat and maize crops, will be selected and calibrated (models such as CERES, HYDRUS1D, WOFOST etc.). The simulation tools may include drought indices for detection of drought damage potential and soil water availability under various climate scenarios. The simulations will be run for pilot stations, and then for additional agrometeorological stations for regional characterization of crop water use.
3. Mountain regions with dominant forest stands (S part of Poland, Central part of Slovakia, N part of Hungary)
The appropriate models (e.g.SYBILA, SILVA) will be used for the assessment of climate change impacts on tree growth (main tree species - Norway spruce, European beech and Oak sp.) under the different climate scenarios for the selected regions under current management systems. Also the spatial analyses will be applied for the evaluation of climate change impacts on some important pests and diseases (weather depending). Estimation of the critical thresholds (air pollution) (e.g. VSD, PROFILE models) as well as selected bioclimatological indices for main tree species will be used for the integrated assessment of climate change and air pollution sensitivity analysis of the most vulnerable forest stands. GIS will be used to visualisize regional effects on CC impacts on forests (vulnerability) under climate scenarios and management options. Special case study related to C-cycle change will be carried out using the BIOME-BGC model for forest ecosystems.
Based on the results from the modelling simulations some conclusions for land management (agriculture and forestry) will be defined as potential adaptation options according to IPCC recommendations
Milestones
M6.1 Month 6: Selection of agricultural and forest regions, Data base on historical data and other model
input data, Preparation of the GIS tools
M6.2 Month 12: Calibration and validation process of the selected models (water balance, drought indices and growth) for the main selected crops, crop rotations and forest ecosystems.
M6.3 Month 24: Simulated results of the sensitivity of crops and management on crop water use. Results on potential drought damage, water use efficiency and crop water use under the selected climate scenarios. Results about the sensitivity analysis and integrated assessment of the most vulnerable forest stands to climate change and air pollution impacts on forest ecosystems.
M6.4 Month 30: Results on management options for improving effective use of water under climate scenarios in the various agricultural production systems. Results on impacts of climate change on C-cycle in agriculture and forest ecosystems.
M6.5 Month 36: Final report written and papers submitted. Adaptation analyses, recommendations and development of management options for improved land use systems in agricultural crop production and forest management under the regional climate change scenarios
M6.2 Month 12: Calibration and validation process of the selected models (water balance, drought indices and growth) for the main selected crops, crop rotations and forest ecosystems.
M6.3 Month 24: Simulated results of the sensitivity of crops and management on crop water use. Results on potential drought damage, water use efficiency and crop water use under the selected climate scenarios. Results about the sensitivity analysis and integrated assessment of the most vulnerable forest stands to climate change and air pollution impacts on forest ecosystems.
M6.4 Month 30: Results on management options for improving effective use of water under climate scenarios in the various agricultural production systems. Results on impacts of climate change on C-cycle in agriculture and forest ecosystems.
M6.5 Month 36: Final report written and papers submitted. Adaptation analyses, recommendations and development of management options for improved land use systems in agricultural crop production and forest management under the regional climate change scenarios
